Measuring the effectiveness of a promotional campaign without a customer control group is not possible. With a test and control group in place, conventional models try to find the group of most likely customers who will visit your shop. This seems like the ideal goal, but you have probably wasted money by targeting mostly people who have visited your shop anyways. You have given guaranteed customers a discount!
A promotional campaign is therefore most effective when only people are targeted who can be persuaded by a promotional offering. Uplift or true-lift modelling provides a framework to predict this group of “persuadables”. Not only does this help to increase the effectiveness of your campaign, it will also make your campaign significantly more profitable.
Please click here to read more about uplift modelling in our whitepaper.